The transatlantic partnership has long been a pillar of global stability, ensuring security and economic cooperation between the United States and Europe. Yet, the alliance faces its gravest challenge—one that risks unraveling decades of progress and collaboration: Donald Trump. At the heart of this crisis lies a misguided debate about American aid to Ukraine. Cutting off this support would be a strategic blunder with far-reaching consequences for the entire free world.
Since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine around three years ago, the Western world has stood steadfast in sending military, economic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. This aid has been crucial in allowing the Ukrainian people to heroically resist Russian aggression and maintain their sovereignty. Yet, voices today in Washington have remarkably fatigued the thought of war faster than the Ukrainians have fatigued fighting a war. The supposed “Russian Hawks” of the GOP have gone silent as they seek to cut aid and open the door to Kyiv wide open for the Russians.
These arguments ignore a stark reality: cutting aid to Ukraine would embolden Russia to continue its war of conquest—not sue for peace—and destabilize Europe. Without American aid, Ukrainian stockpiles would dwindle, capabilities would decrease, and the Russian army would begin advancing. Eventually, the Ukrainian lines would break, forcing Ukraine to accept an unfavorable—even draconian—peace. By appeasing Russia through “diplomacy,” as JD Vance suggested, we would open the door for Russia to regain its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Who would be next in Putin’s imperial ambitions? Belarus? Moldova? NATO allies like Finland and Poland? Where would America draw the line and realize you cannot reason with despots? An invasion of a NATO country could be imminent if Putin senses that Trump really wouldn’t come to the aid of our allies.
Furthermore, the Ukrainian struggle is not one of just regional interest, it is a frontline battle for democracy and the rule of international law. By cutting aid, the US would be abandoning that FDR-era desire to be the “great arsenal of democracy”. We would be sending a message that autocrats can redraw borders by force. To abandon the Ukrainian people and leave them to the whim of the Russian bear would signal to authoritarian regimes around the world that the United States will no longer defend freedom.
While the prospect of slashing Ukrainian aid has sparked anxiety, I don’t believe Donald Trump—despite his posturing—will go through with it. Trump’s political style has always relied on brinkmanship and the bully pulpit: pushing negotiations—and people—to their limits before striking a deal. His threats to withdraw support feel more like muscle-flexing and an attempt to “rally around the flag” rather than a serious strategic shift.
Trump has long positioned himself as a master negotiator, even though that’s debatable, one thing is certain: he thrives on unpredictability. By threatening this aid, he’s likely attempting to pressure European allies to up their defense spending or bend to some other demands. But this gamble is backfiring: Germany’s presumed next Chancellor is leading Europe as they rise to the occasion and defend Ukraine. Europe has grown increasingly defiant in its “little brother” position in the alliance and refuses to yield to Trump’s bully tactics.
World leaders, like Prime Minister Trudeau and President Sheinbaum, have begun calling his bluff on things like tariffs. After 4 long years in his first term, Trump is a known entity, his main negotiation trait— unpredictability—is gone. Now that Trump isn’t getting his way, he is getting desperate and frustrated, now threatening new Russian sanctions to be able to claim some victory. Trump will ultimately back down when faced with the broader risks that emboldening Putin allows. His rhetoric may be brash, but he isn’t ready to face the music in 2026 that would surely come from sabotaging one of the most successful alliances in history.
The trans-Atlantic partnership is too important to risk over political maneuvering and gamesmanship. Cutting aid to Ukraine would betray the Ukrainian people after three heroic years of sacrifice and resistance and undermine the democratic world order. For all his bluster, Trump surely understands this—and if he doesn’t, the consequences will be far bigger than his ego.
Photo Credit:
[Header]: Reuters
[Embedded 1]: Andrew Harnik | Getty Images North America | AFP
[Embedded 2]: Odd Andersen, AFP
Sources:
[4]-https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/11/donald-trump-says-he-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-countries-who-dont-pay-bills
[5]-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arsenal_of_Democracy#:~:text=%22The%20great%20arsenal%20of%20democracy,for%20the%20Allied%20war%20effort.
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